Tendency to be sure judgements and decisions are accurate, uninterested in testing assumptions and dismissive evidence that suggests we might be wrong.
Tendency to think that we are better, smarter, faster, more capable, more attractive, more popular (and so on) than we actually are.
Tendency to think we rank higher than others on certain dimensions, particularly in competitive contexts.
Individuals rely on rules of thumb (heuristics) to lessen the information processing demands of making decisions.
The inferences we make about event commonness based on the ease with which we can remember instances of that event.
We are better at retrieving some subjects from our memory than other things. Individuals base judgement on commonality and easier base strategies.
People tend to ignore background information relevant to the problem such as base rate. We tend to assume that causes and consequences are related.
Simple statistics claims each event in a sequence is equally likely to occur. But individuals believe random and non-random events will balance out.
Simple statistics state that we are more likely to observe an unusual event in a small sample compared to a large one. Learn more.
People predict they will repeat their previous performance exactly. Statistics tells us that extreme performance is likely to regress to the mean over time.